We tend to look to the past for guidance; historians tell us that to know the future we must understand the past, and everyone knows that history repeats itself. These are good principles to live by if you’re planning to invade Russia in the winter or if you’re trying to breakdown the NCAA Tournament.

The trends aren’t foolproof, and there is risk in every game, but there is something about that #12 seed beating a #5 seed. As for Georgetown, they could lose their next game, or the following game, but if the past does predict the future, the Hoyas are in good shape to make the Elite Eight.

Connecticut just lost as a #4 seed to the #13 seed San Diego, last season #6 Duke lost in the opening round to #11 VCU, and a few years ago #3 seed Syracuse dropped an opening round game to the #14 seed Vermont. Georgetown on the other hand has never had such an embarrassing loss. In fact, the Hoyas are hardly ever upset at all. In the 1985 Championship game, the #1 Hoyas lost to a #8 team. Of course, once a team makes it to the final game, all bets are off.

Besides that game, the Hoyas have only been upset in the NCAA tournament seven times in 20 tournaments, and Georgetown has never lost to a team more than 3 seeds below them before the Elite Eight. Even though this pattern can’t help Georgetown tomorrow, it does show that the Hoyas have rarely, if ever, underachieved in the NCAA Tournament. Over three decades there aren’t many teams in the country that can honestly say that.

Here is a list of the eight times the Hoyas have been eliminated from the NCAA Tournament by a lower seed. A loss tomorrow against #10 Davidson would be the worst upset loss in Hoya History.