This year marks the first time in over a decade that the Georgetown Hoyas are ranked in the top five, in both the AP and ESPN/Coaches Polls. While this is certainly an accomplishment for the program, it is important to realize that no games have been played yet, so the high ranking might be a bit undeserved. Please allow me clarify: I am not saying the Hoyas are not one of the best teams in the country. I am saying that one of the teams in the preseason top five will be lucky to make the Field of 65 by March. Don’t believe me? Let’s look back at the past few seasons.

For our purposes, I will only consider the top five teams in the preseason AP Polls, but the ESPN/Coaches Polls have only differed by at most one team in any given year. Let’s begin by looking at the first games of the year. Over the past six seasons, at least one of the teams in the top five has lost a game in its first week of play. Four of those times, the top five team was defeated in its season opener, and in the 2001-02 season, two of the five lost their first game (Maryland and Kentucky). But, Georgetown fans know that early season bumps in the road don’t always translate to a poor season, so let’s look at how the preseason top five faired in March.

Again, looking at the past six years, two times one of the preseason top five failed to even make the NCAA Tournament. In two other years, one of the teams failed to win a tournament game. Not very good stats for a preseason frontrunner. But, the news isn’t all bleak. In four of the six years, the AP Poll had the future NCAA Tournament Champion ranked in top five, and in a fifth year they ranked a finalist. It appears that there is hope for Georgetown after all.

While we know the past does not predict the future, we can use it as a guide, or rather an omen. This particular omen says something along the lines of “Beware of a Preseason Top 5 Ranking!” And like any good warning, it can have two meanings. The first is that a top five ranking does not translate into a successful season. But, the second interpretation is that a high ranking can indicate a great deal of Championship potential. So, as we move towards the start of another season, we must remember one thing. Preseason polls mean nothing. While it’s nice to be recognized as an early favorite, teams still have to go out and win games. Let’s hope the “Beware!” is a warning to Georgetown’s opponents and not to its players.