There are no must-win games in college basketball until March. You can be 0-30, win 7 straight games and be in the Final Four. It’s not likely, but it is possible. That’s the beauty of college hoops, and that’s also why there is no sporting experience like the conference tournaments in spring. That being said, the closest thing to a must-win is the opening game of the Big East Conference regular season.

Since the dawn of the Big East, Georgetown has played in 28 regular season openers and has a record of 17 wins and 11 losses; tomorrow at Rutgers is conference opener #29. Here’s how it looks historically: basically, if the Hoyas are good, they win the opener. If they’re not that good, they lose the opener. If it’s unclear how good the Hoyas are when entering Big East play, then an opening loss is devastating. Losing the opening game takes away any margin for error down the stretch, and it makes an already difficult journey an even steeper uphill battle.

It’s hard to categorize this year’s Hoyas since they haven’t been put to the test that often. The fact that Georgetown is ranked in the Top 10 is more hype than substance (remember Mike’s article about preseason rankings?) I think the Hoyas are good, but losing the conference opener is a good way to send waves of doubt throughout the country and the locker room.

Georgetown has not had great success in Piscataway, NJ (4 wins and 5 losses since Rutgers joined the Big East). I’ve been to see the Hoyas play against Rutgers at the RAC, and that place gets very loud when the Knights start rolling - VERY loud. Rutgers also is coming off an embarrassing defeat to South Florida. And the Big East is what it is, so nobody gets an easy road win - ever. Villanova is a Top 20 team, and they just lost on the road to DePaul, a team with a losing record.

This is a dangerous game for the Hoyas, and the start of a very dangerous stretch of games. After Rutgers, the Hoyas stay on the road to play DePaul, and then return home to host Connecticut. Momentum and confidence come and go so quickly in conference play that getting off on the right foot is essential. Momentum can carry a team to an 11-game winning streak (like last season), and a lack of it can take a team from an at-large bid to an NIT team (like in 2005 when the Hoyas lost 5 in a row to end the season). Everything starts over tomorrow for Georgetown, and if the Hoyas want to set the tone for the next two months, they must win.